6個詞將影響未來20年網絡
Six words for the next twenty years in our connected world
Many people ask themselves – or have asked me – about trends. This seems to be a trend in itself? Imagine how often Kevin Kelly has answered this question.
Who is he? He co-founded Wired magazine in 1993, wrote “New Rules for the New Economy,” “Out of Control,” and “What Technology Wants,” edits the blog Cool Tools, gave some TED talks, and has been part of some Buddhist Geeks podcasts, discussing the wise use of technology.
Recently, at the Web 2.0 Expo, Kelly spoke in defense of his previous talk “Six words for the next 20 years.” It’s clear that these six words indicate trends. I agree we are tired of using these words, but it’s worth taking a look at each one:
screening – in the old days there was a TV screen and a computer. Now, and ever more, there are screens everywhere. Kelly sees every surface could turn into a grand screen;
interacting – for people, interacting used to be done with the fingers on a keyboard, but the iPad is changing that. We will be able to use gestures, voice, cameras and other technologies. See Minority Report;
sharing – we are still at the beginning of social sharing of ideas, much more is yet to evolve; we are on the road to self-monitoring of everything and the many things we can do with localization in real time;
flowing – Kelly believes this will be the new metaphor for the web. Before there was the desktop, later pages on sites, now things are becoming more like transmissions and updates connected to the web;
accessing – in the world we live in, we are going to access media, not possess it. We can see this with Netflix, and soon with the world of music;
generating – “the internet is the biggest copy machine in the world,” he said. Things that cannot be copied easily will become more important (like easy payment systems). Immediacy could be the key – between paying for something now or waiting for it to be copied. Customization may be another factor.
What do you think, readers? Which words does your startup turn to? What is your vision?
++++++++++
6個詞將影響未來20年網絡
4月2日 在Web 2.0博覽會中，有Wired的創始人凱利發表了一場演說，他的主題是影響未來20年網絡世界的六大趨勢。凱利說，“這些是長期發展的趨勢，我是指未來20年的發展方向。”
它們是什么？
屏幕：凱利指出，從前屏幕只出現在電視機上，然后出現在電腦上，現在到處都是屏幕，而且越來越多。未來，所有的平面都可能是一個屏幕。
互動：現在所謂的互動只限于我們的指尖，但iPad、Kinect的出現改變了一切，它和你的身體多了互動。而展望未來，將會有以手勢、語音、相機和其他的東西與我們身體互動，就像Minority Report中的互動一樣。
分享：大多數人認為現在的“分享”是社交媒體最高的理念，但凱利說：“我們才剛剛開始”，由分享自己位置的“打卡”到實時圖片和錄像分享等。
流動：“我們現在正進入一個新的網絡比喻時代”，我們在桌面計算機上的工作已實時地“流向”網絡上。好像Google的Cloud Connect 將桌面上Office文件同步到Google Docs中。
使用權：我們正在邁向一個不在乎信息和媒體“擁有”權，只在乎其“使用”權的世界。我們看到網路電視Netflix的興起，用家不再需要“擁有”某電影的影碟，只需要有即時串流電影的“使用”權就可以了，這趨勢將擴展到音樂市場。
產生：展望未來，重要的內容能以不容易被復制的方法儲存在網絡上，但同時也能隨時隨地以簡單的方法付款購買得到。
Many people ask themselves – or have asked me – about trends. This seems to be a trend in itself? Imagine how often Kevin Kelly has answered this question.
Who is he? He co-founded Wired magazine in 1993, wrote “New Rules for the New Economy,” “Out of Control,” and “What Technology Wants,” edits the blog Cool Tools, gave some TED talks, and has been part of some Buddhist Geeks podcasts, discussing the wise use of technology.
Recently, at the Web 2.0 Expo, Kelly spoke in defense of his previous talk “Six words for the next 20 years.” It’s clear that these six words indicate trends. I agree we are tired of using these words, but it’s worth taking a look at each one:
screening – in the old days there was a TV screen and a computer. Now, and ever more, there are screens everywhere. Kelly sees every surface could turn into a grand screen;
interacting – for people, interacting used to be done with the fingers on a keyboard, but the iPad is changing that. We will be able to use gestures, voice, cameras and other technologies. See Minority Report;
sharing – we are still at the beginning of social sharing of ideas, much more is yet to evolve; we are on the road to self-monitoring of everything and the many things we can do with localization in real time;
flowing – Kelly believes this will be the new metaphor for the web. Before there was the desktop, later pages on sites, now things are becoming more like transmissions and updates connected to the web;
accessing – in the world we live in, we are going to access media, not possess it. We can see this with Netflix, and soon with the world of music;
generating – “the internet is the biggest copy machine in the world,” he said. Things that cannot be copied easily will become more important (like easy payment systems). Immediacy could be the key – between paying for something now or waiting for it to be copied. Customization may be another factor.
What do you think, readers? Which words does your startup turn to? What is your vision?
++++++++++
6個詞將影響未來20年網絡
4月2日 在Web 2.0博覽會中，有Wired的創始人凱利發表了一場演說，他的主題是影響未來20年網絡世界的六大趨勢。凱利說，“這些是長期發展的趨勢，我是指未來20年的發展方向。”
它們是什么？
屏幕：凱利指出，從前屏幕只出現在電視機上，然后出現在電腦上，現在到處都是屏幕，而且越來越多。未來，所有的平面都可能是一個屏幕。
互動：現在所謂的互動只限于我們的指尖，但iPad、Kinect的出現改變了一切，它和你的身體多了互動。而展望未來，將會有以手勢、語音、相機和其他的東西與我們身體互動，就像Minority Report中的互動一樣。
分享：大多數人認為現在的“分享”是社交媒體最高的理念，但凱利說：“我們才剛剛開始”，由分享自己位置的“打卡”到實時圖片和錄像分享等。
流動：“我們現在正進入一個新的網絡比喻時代”，我們在桌面計算機上的工作已實時地“流向”網絡上。好像Google的Cloud Connect 將桌面上Office文件同步到Google Docs中。
使用權：我們正在邁向一個不在乎信息和媒體“擁有”權，只在乎其“使用”權的世界。我們看到網路電視Netflix的興起，用家不再需要“擁有”某電影的影碟，只需要有即時串流電影的“使用”權就可以了，這趨勢將擴展到音樂市場。
產生：展望未來，重要的內容能以不容易被復制的方法儲存在網絡上，但同時也能隨時隨地以簡單的方法付款購買得到。
posted by East.West.Forest at
9:24 上午
